Thing is, we can still try to end thegame or remove that question mark on D5....and if we NL today(D4) we have a smaller player pool to choose from.

*EddieMurphyThinkingMeme*

Well my list more or less hasn't changed much. As for my thoughts: I am listing them, more or less, in my replies to people today.....so feel free to read my posts above and below this post(and of course this post), and if you still have any questions plz lemme know. :)

Funny, both Lift and Nmillar are the ones left on my bragging rights list(iirc Joe was on it, but he's ded nao).

I also might swing that way.....as hinted at above to you and others in the last few posts i've made. Gonna finish up replies first, though, before I make such things offficial.

Good point......NMillar might still be scum, maybe, but something worth thinking about nonetheless.

(Op, there IS a vote in this post, at the bottom)
++++

I don't think scum!you would likely be so willing to post such outright(though could be wrong, still...)....a few pro town points awarded to "house Nmillar".

Tbh it could've been scum!Lift trying to "hide in 'shadow' of my vote"(don't know if i'm saying what i'm thinking correctly...sometimes I find it hard to find the word for more complex ideas), so imo Lift could still be(and likely is, imo) the other scum.


+++

Well done with replies, and I read Lift's one reply...so here are my thoughts:

Lift is likely the scum buddy of Joppo, and is feeling they might be found out eventually....hence the wording of their lone post for D4 so far.
(though it is possible they also worded it, as scum, in the hopes they could still pull off a win somehow)

Also it is likely Lift just wouldn't outright hand us the win(it seems to me it would go against how he likes to play the game and his nature in said games), hence no self voting or resigning or etc, like some scum have done in past games.

My top pick is still Lift, but I would like for us to have a better shot at a win with a narrower pool to pick from(if needed), so:

Vote NoLynch

Votecount the Thirteenth - "Wooooooooo!"

Lifthrasil 1 - ZFR (#614)

No lunch 1 - GymHenson (#632)

Not voting 4 - nmillar, pookina, Lifthrasil, dedoporno,

With 6 players 4 votes are required for lunch.

Lift is closest to lunch at L-3.

My man

(also didn't have that meme yet, so gonna snag a copy :))

The character and meme are actually called Roll Safe, but a quick google suggests you're not the only person to mistake him for Eddie Murphy. ;)

Maybe that's an explanation? Maybe we have polite scum who saw that Joe hardly participates and wanted to save Catte the trouble of finding a replacement? Or scum, who thought killing Joe would yield not much information for Town.

Nmillar did seem not very attentive concerning D2. ... But does that make him scum? He's one of the better candidates. The other being Pooka.

About No-lynch: do we gain something by no-lynching? Usually I don't like it and I guess, whoever are the top suspects Today will survive the Night. So we might not know much more Tomorrow. Scum would be stupid to NK nmillar or me. The only thing we gain would be a reduced target pool. But we also achieve that by lynching plus we get the information from a wagon. So my preference, purely by feeling, would by to go on with lynching. However, that may just be my habit speaking, after having learned over many games 'no-lynch is usually bad'.

As you said: We get a reduced player pool, and also have more posts/info to go on....making it more likely we'll hit scum if we wait a "day" and NL on D4.

But(as said above) we have a better shot at lynching correctly if we wait a "day".

As for analyzing wagons, an honest question: Has anyone ever done that in earnest(beyond slight musings) over the last few games?

Well you seem to be the main choice for a few people.....so if we wen through with a lynch it'd possibly be you. If you're town you probably want to avoid that, so town can win....at least that's what i'm guessing. :)

Well, not necessarily. Of course I would prefer to lynch scum and I know that lynching me would be a mislynch. However, without a way of proving that I'm Town and no Cop to check me the situation is this: After a no-lynch, tomorrow I might still be suspect #1. So I'll be mis-lynched then, after having handed Scum a free NK. So if the majority is convinced that I am actually scum you should lynch me to get the distraction out of the way.

My preference would of course be to lynch someone else, because with anyone else we at least have a chance to hit scum. But everyone will say that.

Psst....come a little closer.....a bit more.....here's the thing: They will get one anyways

So you are OK with being lynched? And you'd rather us to be possibly(if yer town) down TWO TOWN instead of one(if we NL).

If town, how does that make sense?
(especially with us down several town players atm)

And we'd have a better chance on D5 to hit scum...and if you're town you'd likely be able to help us on D5(if yer town and still alive then).

Wat?? You went back to re-read and this is what you came up with?!


Right.


I got both your backs!


Would you rather get lynched Today to remove the distraction than NL?

I've been thinking about this for a while now. We have 5 Town vs 1 scum now. If we lynch correctly it doesn't matter. If we don't, most if not all people on the mislynch wagon are going to be Town. To be honest I'm not sure how good upcoming wagons are going to be and most everyone here has been part of the previous mislynches. Maybe I'm wrong but I think I'm starting to see why this game is considered as favoring the scum.

1vs5 is actually pretty even EV-wise. 53.33% in Mafia's favour.
Personally I think Mafia doing better than their EV only happens more often if there is 2+ Mafioso (i.e. the difference between EV and actual historical results is bigger for games with 2+Mafioso). They can coordinate much better. But I haven't gone through that many Vanilla games on mafiascum.net to support this.

Anyway...

With GH voting NL and the votee obviously not voting for himself, we'll need unanimity from the remaining 4.

So:

dedo, Pooka, nmillar: you willing to vote Lift?
dedo, Pooka, Lift: you willing to vote nmillar?
dedo, Pooka, Lift, nmillar: you willing to vote GH?
dedo, Pooka, Lift, nmillar: you willing to vote ZFR?

I personally am not willing to vote anyone except Lift or nmillar, therefore, unless GH changes his mind, the above 4 are the only options that will get majority.
If any one of you answers NO to any of those questions, that's another option that's definitely not getting majority.

So, speak up. We can eliminate options this way.

Same. I thought Lift was the more likely of the two but nmillar's posts today are just baffling. I would also NL.

I guess. I would, of course, prefer if we lynch someone else. Nmillar, for example, or Pooka. But I think if you are set on lynching me, I would prefer it to be Today over Tomorrow. Otherwise Today would just be a wasted Day.

Well, that's two options off.

So the only wagons that can get majority toDay are nmillar and Lift. And, unless GH changes his vote, they need unanimity.

Pooka, Lift, nmillar. What do you say?

As show above, your only option is nmillar and NL. No other wagon will pass. So you might as well vote.