Posted May 28, 2011
Krypsyn: The Senate would require 60 votes (3/5 of the body, for those not well acquainted with U.S. politics) to close debate, and thus any filibuster, on the bill and move it to a vote. I have no idea how probable 60 votes would be for this bill, but it isn't insurmountable by any means. However, if for some reason it did make it to the Oval Office for a approval, what do you think Obama would do with it? Honest, non-rhetorical question here, because I really haven't been paying much attention to this bill. I am guessing he would veto it? I doubt the bill could get the 2/3 votes in both Houses to override that veto, in any event.
While if the bill was moved through quietly I'd expect it to pass with more than the 60 votes necessary for cloture, I also expect many of those who would have otherwise rubber-stamped the bill to become quiet if someone actually starts making a fuss about it (as Sen. Wyden is threatening to do). Basically this strikes me as the type of bill that plenty of congress-critters would be willing to move through quietly, but who don't want to stand up and try to justify why they're voting for it if people actually start taking a close look at what's going on. As for what Obama would do, considering that so far his administration has been very friendly towards the likes of the RIAA and MPAA (including appointing several ex-RIAA lawyers to top spots in the DoJ), and considering that it's already expressed support towards other internet-censorship initiatives (such as the ICE domain-name seizures), I'd expect Obama to sign it without hesitation if it came across his desk. Thus I'm really hoping it does end up dying with the hold Wyden is placing on it.