If Aryan is dead, Louisa enters a pact with Nilfgaard in exchange for protection for her and her children. After the prison scenario, she and the ambassador go to the upper castle, and she's probably kept under Nilfgaardian care from then on. At some point, the children are being transferred elsewhere (no idea where Louisa is at this point), and Anais is kidnapped and Boussy killed.
If Aryan is alive, Nilfgaard does not dare approach Louisa, so the above-mentioned pact never comes into play. Nothing is mentioned in the game about what's happening between now and Chapter 3, as far as I recall, but you do find out that Natalis secures the area with his men, and I would assume this means continuing to protect Louisa and the children (Aryan surely will, at least), as per Foltest's request. This is pure speculation, though, as the kidnapping of Anais and (likely) murder of Boussy, still takes place as a set-up for Chapter 3.
Post edited July 27, 2011 by Kindo