Ha ha that was a joke, right? Didn't you just say I am top pick?

While there are still only 2 F policies passed ;)

You're his top pick but in the "give him rope to hang hmself" approach...
If I understood correctly.

There you go again. It's too early...

I did wonder myself what the odds are that in both governments no L comes up. That is the proper way to evaluate the situation if worst comes to pass. But then let me point out that only the presidents can "simply" bury a card. For the chancellor that means a dispute or being in cahoots with the prez.

Heh >:(

Nothing missing in that thought process Lift?

Do you even flip a coin theory everyone? It doesn't matter if heads came(already happened) 50 times in a row, the 51st flip still has a 50% chance for heads. It isn't mathematically prudent to try to analyze the combined result of the 2 draws after the first happened. Each draw had a specific chance to give at least one L at the moment of the draw and it ends there. Ask a mathematician if you don't believe me.

These are not coin flips. If we draw all cards we know there will be 2 L flips. If we throw coins we can have 0 L or all L.

You're confusing two things here. *If* we're guaranteed it's a fair coin, then previous results don't matter. If it flipped 9 heads before then it's still 50% chance of flipping heads the 10th time. We can't say "there is only 1/1024 chance of hitting heads 10 times in a row, so it's probably going to be tails."

But if a dude comes, takes a coin out of his pocket and flips 10 heads in a row, then we have good reason to suspect his coin isn't fair, because the odds of him doing that are 1/1024.

So *if* you did draw 3 F, then chances of Lift drawing 3 F again are 41%.

But if Lift does claim he drew 3F now, then we have to ask ourselves if the draws were "fair". Because the odds of drawing 6F in a row are only 22%.

I agree with this number. If we take the 12 card deck, the chance for 2 FFF is this. I don't find it enough for others to change their opinion if it happens, I am not talking about myself since I investigated Lift.
Btw, I liked your other post(top pick unless 3F), it shows that you generally trust me apart from the chance of me being Hitler.

Not really. If you mean the result of the votes, I think that's a given. Liberals will want to avoid chaos. A random policy draw is much more likely to be fascist than liberal. So liberals will probably vote yes this round.
Fascists might be tempted to vote no, if you are liberal and we therefore are a L-L government, but then again they can't prevent this government all by themselves and in case I do draw 3F, it is still prudent for fascists to appear as liberal as they can. So probably they will vote yes too, even if we are an L-L government.

So, I expect that we are voted into office and I hope that I draw at least 1L. If I draw 1L and you enact it, we have won. If I draw 1L and you don't enact it, we have revealed at least 2 fascists. If I draw 2L we liberals have won, no matter what you are. The only bad result would be drawing 3F.

Or what did you mean was missing in my thought process?

OK. Now we wait for the votes - and then we hope that I draw at least 1L and Brasas is Liberal.

Without that it seems so sure of something only me, Dedo and another 3 (or 2 if Dedo overlaps) can be sure of...
I hope I'm paranoid... but if not, don't bury the L Lift. You really want to drag this on? Just pass me that L and it will all be over. No more stress...

Word.

When did you become Krypsyn? o_0

Yes, of course that would be the best case. Why do you insist so much on that point? Are you unsure of it? You could look in your role PM, you know. ;-)

*poke*

votunga, everyone is waiting for your blot.

eh... I mean, blotunga, everyone is voting for your wait! ... eh, waiting for your vote.

I just noticed that we started this game on April 3rd.

The votes are in! The results are as follows.
1. The Greek (greeklover) - YES
2. Boss Kusu (kusumahendra) - YES
3. Mr. Scene (supplementscene) - YES
4. Basil the Lifter (Lifthrasil) - YES
5. Bishop Bling (ZFR) - YES
6. Captain Dedo (dedoporno) - YES
7. Countess Ashvult von Frikkifir (ashwald) - YES
8. Adalia the Bookkeeper (adaliabooks) - YES
9. Big Brass (Brasas) - YES
10. Chief Blotunga (blotunga) - YES

The government is approved!
The president and chancellor (Lifthrasil and Brasas) are now bound to silence until a policy is passed.