Ho Ho. And just as I finished typing the above, I got ninjaed with this:

What's the matter? Finally figured out your plan has no chance of succeeding so are trying a last attempt at FUDing?

Heh.

I actually am entertaining the possibility of RW being the hidden third fascist, with their actual plan being that after dedo's and Brasas's F and F, he emerges as the hero of the day to be picked by kusu after greek-lift make their play.

But duuuude, this reasoning:
is sooo bullcrap. I knew the dedo-scene government would pass a fascist policy. My 5 year old niece probably knew it. With all the bullshitting going on before it, it was obvious something was amiss. And it was the fascists' last chance to rally; unless all 3 of them were really stupid they had to do something.

No. If RW is a hidden fascist it's not because he "was sure the Dedo-Scene government would pass fascist policy". It's because he is intelligent enough to be able to pull it off. He and Brasas and dedo are experienced enough mafia players to execute this flawlessly. I went through the Brasas-RW arguments like 10 times to see if I can spot anything to show that it's fake and could find nothing. It's perfect.

Not saying RW is fascist. But I'm still keeping an open mind to all possibilities. We haven't won this yet.

Yes. Which is why I wrote that it's 90% in the sentence right after the one you quoted.

If you want to calculate the odds, you can use the link I provided a few pages ago.

I don't get it. Was that a reference to something?

Or, to put it another way. If a person "being sure that Dedo-Scene government would pass a fascist policy" was incriminating evidence against him, do you think RWarehall would be so stupid to announce to that to the whole world? Wouldn't he be quiet then?

It's high NOon!

I mean, you can vote without me having announced it, the announcement is just so it's more visible/everybody is aware what's going on. But if you just insist on having things be actually proper for some reason:

CURRENT PROPOSED GOVERNMENT
President: General Warehall (RWarehall)
Chancellor: Basil the Lifter (lifthrasil)

Please PM me your yes/no votes on whether you wish for this setup or not, if you haven't already. There must be a majority "yes" for this to pass.

Brasas apparently making reference to Mystic River when "baiting" me.

@lift. It's not that I am sure if dedo is a liberal. The way I see it is

If dedo is lying, then both dedo and Brasas are fascist. Brasas then can be elected and passes the F policy. This sounds good as it will make it 3-2 and fascist really need it right now. Except this step will also bury their chance of winning because we'll canned both of them, leaving only one member to make it work for them. The trade off is too big for fascist to risk it.

Considering this, I'm willing to give Brasas a chance for presidency

Bingo! At least someone is thinking straight.

Whatever Brasas is, he's not stupid. He can't not know they they're losing this way. So I'm sure he's got a backup plan hidden somewhere.

My thoughts are:

A) Do the fascists have a well-established Hitler, so they are willing to do the desperate push because they know all they have to reach is 3F? If I were to guess I'd put my money on "hey-Brasas-I-know-what-you're-doing" greek, but I wouldn't put it past Lift either.

B) They must have a back-up plan to get that third F. So who is the neatly hidden third fascist that we haven't discovered yet?
_ Is it kusu? Is that why he's so confident becaues he knows his buddy is next right after greek?
_ Is it RW, who's arguing so much with Brasas they surely can't be on the same team?
_ Is it actually Lift who just happened to draw LLF as president, so couldn't pass an F policy?
_ Or is it actually scene who was so vehement in supporting Brasas and dedo but suddenly realized their predicament and is quickly backpedalling?

Come on Brasas, can you tell me which of the above is true? Maybe just a little hint? Like a song reference this time?

(EDIT: and while writing this I just had the idea that dedo's play is a double-bluff meant for us to disbelieve him and pick adalia. Is adalia your third team mate? Or do you know adalia will pass F because you and scene already discarded the 2 remaining Ls?).

Anyway, Hitler can't hurt us so (A) is secondary. I'm leaning to going through adalia instead of Brasas to reach greek, but I'm just not sure.

You've missed something...
Their backup plan is our bad luck with the cards. After the reshuffle, the chances for 3F go up.

Also remember that they have no way of telling each other if any of them discarded L's. They are flying as blind as we are in that regard.

Nope. I refuse to believe their back up plan is plain luck of our bad luck and reshuffle cards. They need much more than just luck to win this.

They need to sway opinion and vote to their side. Lobbying is their weapon now.

I really want to trust Lift. If he had drawn LLF, wouldn't he pass LL to avoid clearing me? And if he was a fascist but not Hitler, after Scene's LLF, would it be a bad move to pass me FF and say he drew FFF? FFF had a fair chance at that moment but we probably remove him.

The good thing is that after this government, I suppose the next will be me-Lift so, unless I get a bad draw after the reshuffle, things will clear.

We should also start thinking who will be chancellor after that, since I won't be eligible. Of course, if brasas passes me L, all is well.

And another advantage we will have, that we will know exactly what is in the stack after the re-shuffle, since everything that isn't on the table goes back in the stack.


@kusu: I am willing to give Brasas a chance too. However, your first statement after dedo's read sounded very confident.
That sounds conviced. 'is actually' - not 'might be', not 'so dedo says', no analysis that the read might be anything but true. That struck me as odd.

Are you unsure? I see this as the obvious play, and if there will be a dispute between you two it will be best to bring it out early than later.

Switch the pronouns around...

Thanks! But what I really like is if you compliment my vocabulary... or my genitals.

You know I can't. The premise is my being Fascist which is False.

I was a tad sensitive to the "sure" thing... as you see RW at least is setting the ground for the hail mary of me not drawing any L.

How observant of you. :) Indeed I answered the way that would best counterattack you. Because what I did was basically prove how your implication of preferential treatment was baseless. I actually expected you would shift to saying that was distancing more strongly, but ok, I can't predict everything.

So now here's the real answer. You are begging the question.
The way you did it was by defining FUD incorrectly.

For the sake of argument let's say Scene's attacks on you were baseless - well baseless attacks can still be on the right target. And unless Scene was showering everyone or most of everyone with baseless attacks, or even with based attacks, that would be tunneling or probing. Not FUDding. Why would I ask him to stop it?

You on the other hand are almost indiscriminate in your attacks now and you hardly follow through. You do lean more heavily here instead of there, but I think there's not been one player in the game that you have not attacked since you recovered your wits. Which is good strategy, otherwise we'd identify your buddies and Hitler much easier, but it is still obviously FUD whereas Scene's previous behavior was not.

I'll throw you a bone. Scene's apparent turning attention on me and Dedo, especially in contrast to how strong his attention on you was previously... that smells fashy. I still think it's a good chance he is overeager townie who went a bit paranoid by focusing on us because of the investigation result... but who knows...

Anyway, if anything that makes it even clearer:
You are composed and logical and attacking everything and anyone = FUD
Scene is focused, sometimes reaching and paranoid = not FUD

Capisce?

Allow me to bite on your FUD and ask: Yeah, I have been wondering, do you have an Ace up your sleeve?

Or is this you jumping on the grenade and really really trying so hard out of guilt for outing your scum team earlier?

I would have thrown you under the bus so hard... will be interested to ask RW why he didn't...

So all that focus on ZFR and yet the implication here is that you are currently town reading him? Please elaborate.
Do you just mean by leaning that you are temporarily exploring the possibility space?

So what you are saying is I should fully trust Dedo? Run that by me in a bit more detail... I can still wonder if he would say the truth about me despite, or perhaps because of, having drawn the 3F...

You mean Adalia? It's not like it's so hard to look at the roster... ;)

Just so y'all know, Tabletop Simulator is kind of giving me issues, so I might not be able to show board pictures for a bit aside from the liberal/fascist track. Hopefully gonna work it out, but still not sure what's up.

I can understand that sensitivity (but a fascist would be sensitive in that respect too, so it's NAI) and I also see that there is a possibility for dedo being F and you being L, if you actually draw 3F. Dedo might have discarded 1 or 2L and therefore be quite confident that the next draw will be 3F. If that is the case, he knows that the next draw will reveal that his report of having drawn 3F will appear quite doubtful after the next draw and his 'clearing' you may be geared towards taking you down with him, when it is revealed that there is a high chance that he's scum.

Yes, possible. But I still would exclude you from further governments if you DO report to have drawn 3F. Everything else would be too dangerous. And I repeat again: if you are lucky enough to draw 2L, pass them to Greek. I'll explain in more detail why later. But now I have to run to a meeting.

If dedo was fascist and brasas liberal, I think dedo would start a conflict. By saying brasas is liberal, he allows our obvious play that is a brasas-me government with 2 liberals. So in my opinion, dedo and brasas have the same alignment.