So basically you're encourageing us to vote against you? I have no problem with that. However who do you feel could we trust after? Adalia or Brasas?

I've thought of yet one more reason for this steering:

If they needed Brasas to be picked as president.

They couldn't allow me to be president., because then if we go with the original plan, the next president could only be adalia.
They didn't want you to be president either, because then for the next president, there'd be a choice of Brasas or blotunga (or even adalia). greek said himself that choosing you president had the advantage of being able to choose between Brasas or blotunga in the next step. They didn't want this advantage. Choosing dedo was the way to go: that way they could easily push Brasas as the next president, over adalia who everyone found less credible.

I guess it's Adalia for me by default as I think there is a better chance Brasas is in league with Dedo/Scene given Dedo and Brasas seemingly supporting each other. But "trust", that's a strong word. I can't say I trust Adalia.

Of course we will have to wait for the probably useless investigation results.

And some (really this time) final thought before I go to sleep.

_ In defense of dedo and scene: the percentage of drawing 3F is 36%, which in itself is high enough, but it could be even higher if some of the earlier presidents lied about results. Let's not completely discard the idea that this government did get unlucky and got 3F cards.

_ If one of the trio dedo-brasas-scene is liberal, then it means there is still one more fascist, aside of Hitler, neatly hidden somewhere. Personally, I can see the possibility of scene being lead by the other two. Both dedo and Brasas are good enough players to pull it off. And this might explain why a fascist P would cover for a liberal C: dedo still needed to retain scene's trust.

Also, RWarehall, don't take it the wrong way please, but my gut feeling is to mistrust people who are "friendly" to you. I've seen it too often in Resistance when a spy would befriend a townie newbie. "Yes, yes!" he'd say "you're absolutely right; don't let others bully you!" while secretly laughing.
You've said the right things; I can't find fault in anything you've written. You were part of a liberal government, though by your own admission you had no choice to make. I'd probably pick you over adalia and Brasas if such a choice was possible.
But... just like I don't like tunneling against somebody, I also don't want to tunnel for somebody. I'm keeping my mind open to all possibilities.

And as a bonus, something I found a bit amusing:

Lift, in all the times playing Secret Hitler, was such a question even necessary after a fascist policy? Did any chancellor ever give an answer that's not 2F? Like "damn, you caught me."

Of course from your point of view you know whether he got 2F policies or not. While I'm not convinced you are both F it is definitely possible in which case you could be covering for him. So unfortunately for the rest of us there has to be some doubt.

I'm not. I did feel you were probably liberal though the outcome of your government throws doubt on that, but I'm still inclined to believe you.
And if you do say I'm a fascist then I know you actually are and just need to be able to persuade everyone else that is the case. But if Brasas is your buddy then you would just clear him and there would be no conflict to work on to try and unpick things.

Excuse me, but it's your fault that dedo was elected president. The original plan had you as president but when the idea of dedo hit the table, you were too PASSIVE, and said things like ok let them hang themselves etc. The goal is to win not prove who is fascist. If I were a liberal in your place and in a real life game, I would have started shouting and would turn the room upside down to stop people from voting dedo. But you were like ok whatever in contrast to Scene who gave his best performance to convince us.

Well... it's a night charm offensive from ZFR and RW :)
It was kind of amusing to see them position themselves for this in advance.

On the F pass, I think it was just (bad) luck of the draw. That's the nature of this game; even if you have the government you might not have the cards, and vice versa...

So yeah... this does increase L chances for next gov, which is a silver lining - especially with greek as chancellor in whatever government we pass.


I'll snipe some replies - trying to be briefer than my usual. Then I'll post separately my reads prog as I think that's the best way to help dedo decide on investigation and help everyone else read me in turn for gov decisions.

so reasonable :)

so much shade...

don't worry... he understands distancing ;)
and it's anyway time for cool-headed RW instead of hot-headed RW

An L government might choose to pass F to get the investigation instead of letting Fs mindfuck...

The only reason I "supported" dedo is you and ZFR being scummy as all get out. And dedo's "support" of me was so prickly I still half wonder if he is trying to pocket me or shade me through faked distancing...

Scene is still quite credible Liberal IMO. Maybe I'm underestimating him but I don't see him faking the tunneling as scum. I think his tunneling is in context evidence of his Liberalness and not a show.

Indeed. So congrats for the effective coordination with ZFR which you needed to pull off in public.
PS: I like that "presumably" as if you didn't know for sure :)

heh...

Your meltdown you mean? :P

Well timed!

Make up your mind about me will you? If I'm right then you should particularly apologize to me, instead of this wounded pride pique. I do like how it makes you seem more emotionally honest - "Brasas was right, but I hate what he did to me, so blah blah" which then makes you seem more honest in general. It's a good technique.

This is also very very good ZFR. Congrats again. The key manipulation in here is all strawman of course: that I was "happy", that I was feeling "so clever", that I gave no thought to your being Liberal, that I don't know how the tension builds much longer because of playing this in writing.

When actually I was treating you with kid gloves - I don't think I pushed that hard. From making the explicit Mystic River reference to myself raising the point you might just be a stressed townie... I even kept reaching out even after it happened - whereas your buddy RW just ignored it. I askied you to provide reads, asked you to cool off and consider that if you're Liberal my attacking you does not mean I am scum... and I did all that while thinking "Fuck, this will look like I am staging this show with him." Pure town play would not have treated with you kids gloves... but I was and am aware this is your first game as likely scum.

Which is why, because of the kind of player you are, and the fact I in general identify with you intellectually I did think this pressure might be effective. I remember how stressed I was when I was scum first time - how easy it is to see any push as "they know". The temptation to go for some crazy gambit when all seems lost. I was surprised, but even then I so much wanted it to not be true ZFR...

So the answer is No my friend. I did not consider that YOU if townie would bite that. Because that's not your character as I know it.

Respect and we will all know for sure after the game what happened.

PS: I hope I'm right and you scummily know I'm Liberal in which case you know all the above is sincere. Because it will make it even harder for you to reply :P

+1 This is the play

Self deprecating ironic joke alert. Although I assume most of you are not just european but young so this might go woosh...

I welcome this kind of examination because people have got to know whether or not their president is a crook. Well, I'm not a crook.

The deck gives and the deck takes... silver lining of the investigation is yet to be seen - you might indeed be F. But silver lining of the deck giving L for next government is stronger. Too many would have had to have lied otherwise.

Of course no president would say that. But still I always ask the question, because how it is answered may give hints. Unfortunately we have the disadvantage that we couldn't see dedo's face when he answered, which is a big part of playing this on a table. The bluffing and reading, just like when playing poker.

About the scenario: dedo=F, Scene=L, I still see that as possible. Dedo might have gone for more cred to be able to steer the discussion better later on. After all he has been a strong player in the past and is able to influence opinions. He might have decided that avoiding conflict is more important than creating confusion. Not the most likely decision for a F-dedo, but a possible one.

About the cards remaining: if dedo really has drawn 3F, then the next government has to draw at least 1L. So yes, silver lining, as Brasas said, IF the 3F are true. However, I think he believes that too readily. It is, after all, more likely that dedo didn't draw 3F. We will see, at least if the next government is liberal. If the next government "Draws 3F" again, then we have a contradiction which we can analyze.

About how to continue: I think the plan hasn't changed. Skip RW (sorry RW, you're too far away from greek) and go for adalia or Brasas. Both should nominate greek as chancellor, since he's the most trusted player right now and term-locking will not prevent him from becoming president.

Well... he was quite busy with ZFR... handholding, coordinating, distancing...
I actually think he managed to quite well position scum play for the odds of F policies coming up with the "give them rope" posturing.

I just have no way of knowing and when I previously tried to think scenarios of people lying about the card draws I got too lost...

------------------------------

Anyway reads now. Previously on post 331.

The unfortunate result of all my push pull with ZFR and RW is that I had little time and mindspace to properly sort others. Please point out anything I might have missed.

On the bottom are ZFR and RW. I assume I don't have to rehash the whole argument. The one thing making me doubt this double read is that blotunga's No vote was easy to justify from self-interest and so kind of NAI. So if I'm right 2 scum might have gone with the odds - which is odd. But if I'm wrong and one or both of these are actually town, then there's even more scum going with the flow, which is even odder (but worth keeping in mind for how it reflects on dedo and Scene). So for now Occam's razor says I stick with the working theory.

On the top are still greek, Lift and Scene. The reason Scene is no longer a bit lower is not from his own government results - I agree greek and Lift are more confirmed Liberal assuming no lying about card draws has happened. But when it comes to potential Hitler I likewise see Lift and Greek as more likely, Scene has been more pushy and tunneling which to me reads less Hitler.

That leaves a mush for kusu, dedo, adalia and blotunga. Working theory is that there is one Fascist in these 4.

kusu I have as slight town - he is passive which I see as disengaged town instead of resigned scum
dedo I want to believe L, but also believe he can have me fooled
adalia is easy to suspect since he fits the most neatly with the ZFR / RW pair. Gun to my head, he's the one I'd choose for 3rd scum. But I end up second guessing myself.
blotunga is ok I guess, he is around more which I see as NAI and nothing really pinged me strongly

Don't have time to fully analysis or read Brasas' post at the moment, have busy day today.

But I've just realised I probably can't trust dedo to investigate me despite my feelings he is leaning liberal.
There were two many yes votes on that government for them both to be liberal. Fascists couldn't have allowed a pure liberal government unopposed like that, unless we've been lied to about how many liberal policies have already been drawn.
First glance suggests that is unlikely, but Lift could be F and lied and greek could still be Hitler but even so it would only be completely safe for F to allow a full L government if there were no L policies yet. And that is highly unlikely at the moment.

Of course as I write this I'm thinking without any way to coordinate the F can't know as a whole what the state of the deck is so the more likely proposition is that one of scene or dedo is F.

Sorry if that is a bit disjointed, I'm in a rush.
Game is actually a lot more complicated than I was thinking when I joined, I thought at 3-0 we had this in the bag but now I see there is a lot more complexity. Not sure when I'll get a chance to properly contribute in the next couple of days, but whatever happens we should probably be shooting down RWs government so I don't think there's a rush at the moment.

Maybe we should do a quick vote on whom to investigate? I'm leaning towards Brasas, all those early NO votes rubbed me wrong I guess, but adalia (cristi) so far was too passive to have any read on. I overreacted a bit, but since I'm out of the cards for president, I would like to have dedo's read. Then I can expand my deliberations.

Why not, I vote brasas

Screw you. It's your fault too. And everyone else. Assign the blame to me? You are the fool who called Scene "very likely liberal" now aren't you? You clearly weren't reading the thread very carefully and were not analyzing the possibilities.

Did you even read my post as to what the possibilities were? We were still voting...YOU could have spoken up too, or anyone else to ask people to stick to the plan. YOU didn't. So who the hell do you think YOU are to blame me?

I did what I thought was best for the liberal cause as a whole. I explained to fully what the situation was and I believe punting to Dedo was the best choice. I made my choice TO WIN! And one way to win is to trap fascists. Because sticking with the plan, choosing Scene opened up a clear path to a loss.

--------------
As to ZFR and the possibilities...
Unless you think Greek bagged an extra L and lied about it Day 1... (meaning fascist or Hitler AND getting the right draw)
Or Scene drew 3L...
Or Lift is a Fascist and really drew 2L... (meaning fascist or Hitler AND getting the right draw)

The count should be about right. There weren't that many extra L's to go around which makes the odds against it. It's possible but only from fascist (or Hitler) presidents.

Wow. Thanks for the kid gloves. A movie reference and you actually "raised the point you might just be a stressed townie..."

Talk about strawman. I've been providing reads this whole game (instead of fixating on one person), one of which you just dismissed as "so much shade... " this very post. And believe me I knew you attacking me does not mean you're scum. I'm keeping an open mind even now.

Lol u mad