It seems that you're using an outdated browser. Some things may not work as they should (or don't work at all).
We suggest you upgrade newer and better browser like: Chrome, Firefox, Internet Explorer or Opera

×
avatar
supplementscene: Based on 4 F and 2 L cards left from reports

Liberal Card Odds against Percent Chance
2 5.0:1 19.999999999999996447%
1 1.7:1 59.999999999999992895%
0 5.0:1 19.999999999999996447%
avatar
Brasas: I'll stick to the scenario I think is true and ask:
Can anyone doublecheck the odds? I thought it was 10% odds of 3F, here it's almost twice as much...

Who screwed up the math?

avatar
supplementscene: If Greek is passed 2L it backs up Dedo's story though but then it doesn't back up Brasas. Because what is Brasas supposed to do if he's fascist?
avatar
Brasas: You're using "back up" in two different ways here.
For dedo you mean it proves he did not lie about his draw.
For me you are using it to mean I don't get confirmed as Liberal.

It would be good if you manage to be somewhat clearer...
It's 3F and 2L left actually. So, it's 10%
avatar
supplementscene: Based on 4 F and 2 L cards left from reports

Liberal Card Odds against Percent Chance
2 5.0:1 19.999999999999996447%
1 1.7:1 59.999999999999992895%
0 5.0:1 19.999999999999996447%
avatar
Brasas: I'll stick to the scenario I think is true and ask:
Can anyone doublecheck the odds? I thought it was 10% odds of 3F, here it's almost twice as much...

Who screwed up the math?

avatar
supplementscene: If Greek is passed 2L it backs up Dedo's story though but then it doesn't back up Brasas. Because what is Brasas supposed to do if he's fascist?
avatar
Brasas: You're using "back up" in two different ways here.
For dedo you mean it proves he did not lie about his draw.
For me you are using it to mean I don't get confirmed as Liberal.

It would be good if you manage to be somewhat clearer...
I'm subtracting 2F or 1L and 1F from the cards on post 304, giving:

2L+4F or
1L+5F

and calculating via:

https://nerdbucket.com/statistics/hypergeometric/

6 Marbles
2/1 White Marbles
3Draws

If someone wants to check my calculations, feel free.
avatar
Brasas: I'll stick to the scenario I think is true and ask:
Can anyone doublecheck the odds? I thought it was 10% odds of 3F, here it's almost twice as much...

Who screwed up the math?

You're using "back up" in two different ways here.
For dedo you mean it proves he did not lie about his draw.
For me you are using it to mean I don't get confirmed as Liberal.

It would be good if you manage to be somewhat clearer...
avatar
supplementscene: I'm subtracting 2F or 1L and 1F from the cards on post 304, giving:

2L+4F or
1L+5F

and calculating via:

https://nerdbucket.com/statistics/hypergeometric/

6 Marbles
2/1 White Marbles
3Draws

If someone wants to check my calculations, feel free.
You got the number of cards wrong. We have 5 cards left, not 6.
So either: 3F+2L or 4F+1L or 5F (more than 2L isn't possible, because there are 3 on the table and we know one was discarded)
avatar
supplementscene: I'm subtracting 2F or 1L and 1F from the cards on post 304, giving:

2L+4F or
1L+5F

and calculating via:

https://nerdbucket.com/statistics/hypergeometric/

6 Marbles
2/1 White Marbles
3Draws

If someone wants to check my calculations, feel free.
avatar
Lifthrasil: You got the number of cards wrong. We have 5 cards left, not 6.
So either: 3F+2L or 4F+1L or 5F (more than 2L isn't possible, because there are 3 on the table and we know one was discarded)
My bad I didn't remove the picked policy card, updated:

White marbles Odds against Percent Chance
2 3.4:1 29.999999999999996447%
1 1.7:1 59.999999999999992895%
0 10.0:1 9.999999999999998224%

or

White marbles Odds against Percent Chance
1 1.7:1 59.999999999999992895%
0 2.5:1 39.999999999999992895%

SO @Greek if Dedo is lying there is a 40% chance of FFF
avatar
supplementscene: SO @Greek if Dedo is lying there is a 40% chance of FFF
Or a 100% if 2L were discarded in that round (i.e. you discarded 1L too) or someone sneakily discarded 1L in a previous round.

In any case, if Brasas draws FFF, there's a >90% chance that dedo is lying and therefore scum. But we have been over this several times already.
avatar
greeklover: Why is dedo and brasas fascists? I didn't understand the reasons from your posts.

And how do you see Zfr and RW? Are you convinced they are liberal?

And why do people even suspect Scene of being Hitler? This is worse than suspecting me. A fascist throwing chaos to the table maybe but Hitler playing like this?

If brasas is fascist, so is dedo, and getting proof of that now seems to me more useful than testing an unknown player. I won't forgive an unlucky draw. So I will vote no to adalia's nomination.
I already suspected Brasas of being fascist so there may be a bit of bias involved, but basically the voting for ZFR and dedo's governments suggest dedo should be fascist.

ZFR only got 4 yes votes, even with scene as chancellor (who at the time was still a fairly strong liberal lean), there was a very concerted effort to try and derail that government.
dedo's however got only 2 no votes. So even if you assume ZFR is fascist and all four of us who voted yes are fascist, why did we then vote yes for dedo's government? Fascists can't really afford another liberal policy passed so it makes sense that there is something about dedo's government the fascists were happy with.
If we assume scene is Hitler then the fascists couldn't risk him blowing his cover to pass a fascist policy with ZFR as president, so instead they needed a double billing of fascists, dedo and scene, to sell the three F story without any conflict.

As for Brasas, if we follow the line of thinking that scene and dedo are fascists, the only way they can be sure that a liberal Brasas will pass an F is if they discarded the last two L cards (which is unlikely, unless scene knows dedo is F), therefore confirming him as liberal only really makes sense if he isn't (or they have some clever plan to recover from 4-1 once Brasas and Greek pass another L policy)


I'm reasonably convinced RW is liberal. This is a different game but this doesn't feel like his usual scum game in mafia, and he's making very good points and thinking things through.
ZFR I wouldn't go as far as saying convinced, but I think his actions (and the reactions to his governments) place him as more likely liberal than fascist.

Because up until recently, other than a clash with ZFR (which no one was all that bothered with) scene was doing a reasonable job of appearing liberal. I think his more recent behaviour is down to panic as the fascists are on the back foot. Plus I think the line I quoted above is a slip.

Is it though? Neither dedo or Brasas have any real liberal cred, sure if Brasas passes an L policy we can be fairly sure of them both and add them to the cycling roster, but if they pass an F then 1) we're at 3-2 and 1 F policy away from Hitler and 2) we lose a possible liberal investigation for passing an F.
If anyone's going to be passing an F policy and getting an investigation I'd rather it was a trusted liberal president like you than an unknown entity like Brasas.
May as well get the ball rolling;

I nominate greeklover as chancellor
avatar
Lifthrasil: But we have been over this several times already.
It bears repeating. How else are they going to drive the point home that their F policies only mean that they're the unluckiest mafia players ever.
avatar
adaliabooks: ZFR only got 4 yes votes, even with scene as chancellor (who at the time was still a fairly strong liberal lean), there was a very concerted effort to try and derail that government.
dedo's however got only 2 no votes. So even if you assume ZFR is fascist and all four of us who voted yes are fascist, why did we then vote yes for dedo's government? Fascists can't really afford another liberal policy passed so it makes sense that there is something about dedo's government the fascists were happy with.
If we assume scene is Hitler then the fascists couldn't risk him blowing his cover to pass a fascist policy with ZFR as president, so instead they needed a double billing of fascists, dedo and scene, to sell the three F story without any conflict.
Hmmm, you are making a lot of sense. I don't know what to vote at this point.
Liberals what do you say? I would like to go with the majority here. We stay on the plan with brasas president or we change the plan and vote this government?
avatar
ZFR: It bears repeating. How else are they going to drive the point home that their F policies only mean that they're the unluckiest mafia players ever.
But y'all are the ones that keep blabbing about it...

By the by, have you already thought how to react when I and greek pass the 4th L?
Any prepared remarks for faked surprise? You don't want it to sound too rehearsed.

Maybe work in that apology you still owe me? You could make it quite dramatic... lean a bit into the anger and frustration of being one step closer to losing the game.

Here's an idea: Say that I pulled 3 L and so had no choice! ;)

avatar
adaliabooks: ZFR only got 4 yes votes, even with scene as chancellor (who at the time was still a fairly strong liberal lean), there was a very concerted effort to try and derail that government.
Yeah... unless memory fails, it was called "let's get to Greek ASAP" strategy... almost everyone preferred RW to ZFR, and things evolved.

avatar
adaliabooks: I'm reasonably convinced RW is liberal. This is a different game but this doesn't feel like his usual scum game in mafia, and he's making very good points and thinking things through.
@RW... ain't it funny that Adalia thinks your scum game does NOT involve good points and thinking things through? :D

avatar
adaliabooks: ... if Brasas passes an L policy we can be fairly sure of them both and add them to the cycling roster, ...
Watch out! Stating the obvious might get your buddies to attack you soon enough...

Anyway, voting. I'm not sure you're the 3rd Fash, although it is my working theory, so not much to think about honestly.
avatar
ZFR: It bears repeating. How else are they going to drive the point home that their F policies only mean that they're the unluckiest mafia players ever.
avatar
Brasas: But y'all are the ones that keep blabbing about it...
Heh, I'd ask you again to pull one single post where I mentioned it, let alone blabbed, but it's my experience such requests get ignored here.

No... the luck element seemed to be repeated most by "10% mushroom" dedo and "Is this essentially a game of luck?" scene (who conveniently again "forgot" to remove a card in his calculations).
avatar
adaliabooks: ZFR only got 4 yes votes, even with scene as chancellor (who at the time was still a fairly strong liberal lean), there was a very concerted effort to try and derail that government.
dedo's however got only 2 no votes. So even if you assume ZFR is fascist and all four of us who voted yes are fascist, why did we then vote yes for dedo's government? Fascists can't really afford another liberal policy passed so it makes sense that there is something about dedo's government the fascists were happy with.
If we assume scene is Hitler then the fascists couldn't risk him blowing his cover to pass a fascist policy with ZFR as president, so instead they needed a double billing of fascists, dedo and scene, to sell the three F story without any conflict.
avatar
greeklover: Hmmm, you are making a lot of sense. I don't know what to vote at this point.
Liberals what do you say? I would like to go with the majority here. We stay on the plan with brasas president or we change the plan and vote this government?
I suggest a thorough analysis of Adalia's posts and weighing up whether Adalia or Brasas are more liberal.

Adalia's unwavering loyalty to RWarehall and ZFR and his/her comment that 'RWarehall is too smart to make this mistake' makes me quite suspicious. I think that was Adalia from my recollection. Adalia has also worked quite hard to implicate Scene on the basis of Scene being suspicious of ZFR and RWarehall. Even to the extent Adalia used my post talking about the 3 Liberal Presidents/Chancellors, Scene/Greek/Lift being possibly Hitler as a tell that I was Hitler. (Post 702)

Adalia I believe also seemed to accuse Dedo of being fascist before we had any clear tells that he was fascist, again alongside RWarehall. None of these players gave a satisfactory reason for accusing Dedo that early.

Now going back to the RWarehall, ZFR and Adalia triangle who vehmently agree with each other on everything well on post 670 ZFR states he leans towards Adalia.

RWarehall "I guess it's Adalia for me by default as I think there is a better chance Brasas is in league with Dedo/Scene given Dedo and Brasas seemingly supporting each other". In post 618 RWarehall states we can't trust Dedo's investigation of Adalia and Brasas, which maybe true but it shows further alignment to Adalia none the less.

Brasas has been targeted/suspected of being Scum by Adalia and RWarehall (and maybe ZFR?) way before the Dedo investigation. Is this suspicious? They were quite insistant on it too.

So we need a full analysis of all of Adalia's posts, but for me I think I am less suspicious of Brasas as a poster.

The key issue with Brasas is he is linked to Dedo who passed fascist policy. As a poster he makes me think he's liberal even if he's just playing a very shrewd game.

I have to leave now but I'll bring more analysis later as I have to pick up my good lady up now.
avatar
adaliabooks:
Oops, brasas is right about this. We voted no for Zfr to avoid being locked to cristigale. But yeah, all those yeses for dedo are disturbing.
Anyway, you could be a fascist and if you pass me FF, we remove you but that's not much. Since I can't say that you have less of a chance to be a fascist than brasas, I prefer brasas and if he passes me FF, at least we remove 2 people, him and dedo, and we are still in an ok position.
avatar
greeklover: Liberals what do you say? I would like to go with the majority here. We stay on the plan with brasas president or we change the plan and vote this government?
avatar
supplementscene: ...
He said Liberals.

avatar
supplementscene: but for me I think I am less suspicious of Brasas as a poster.
Dude, changing opinions much? It's like only yesterday the scum were RW who was fake arguing with Brasas/dedo. How many fascists are there?
avatar
supplementscene: ...
avatar
ZFR: He said Liberals
I knew someone would say that :)